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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans rising together. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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